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THE DOLLAR HIT PARADE - by Justice Litle

There are only a few ways for the bull market in gold to play out, and
supposedly a fixed ending in all cases. The yellow metal's dollar price
will violently launch into orbit at some point, arc into a near vertical
crescendo and ultimately burn itself out supernova style. Either that or a
long, drawn-out grind - a steady sloshing higher over the course of years,
punctuated by occasional hiccups and countertrends to keep us on our toes.
Or perhaps a combination of both, in homage to the disco era - a multiyear
rise capped off with a blaze of glory

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AMERICA'S REALITY - by Dr. Kurt Richebächer

Corroboration was seen in particular in recent job gains that were fast
enough to lower the unemployment rate to a four-year low of 4.9%.
In our view, the plethora of statistical data was overwhelmingly pointing
to slowing economic growth.

Consumer spending may have remained surprisingly resilient, but
considering its feeble underpinnings in the housing bubble, the time
before a marked pullback is, in any case, rather limited. All that is
needed to stop the consumer borrowing-and-spending spree in its tracks is
a halt to the rise in house prices, implicitly finishing the provision of
increasing collateral for higher borrowing.

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WHAT'S HOLDING GOLD BACK? - by Doug Casey

After the price of gold spiked over $850 in January of 1980, gold production increased substantially - and it stayed up, even with the steep falloff in gold prices. Production has gone from about 1,200 tonnes per year in 1980 to its current level, over 2,500 tpy.

Where did all that new gold production come from? Aside from the dramatic increase in price incentive in 1980, new technologies have matured, such as heap leaching and satellite prospect identification. In addition, since the collapse of communism, many prospective areas of the world have opened to modern exploration.

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THE CONSUMER-DEPENDENT ECONOMY - by Gary Shilling

The role of American consumers in promoting economic growth in the U.S. and, indeed, in many export-driven foreign countries will be especially significant in coming quarters. The effects of the previous huge federal tax cuts and rebates are over. And the leap in federal spending for homeland security and military action in Afghanistan and Iraq is over, so federal spending's share of GDP has leveled.

At the same time, the stimulative effects of earlier Fed credit ease have been reversed. Housing remains strong but the bursting of that bubble may be near, I believe.

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TAKING THE BULL BY THE HORNS - by David Fuller

Global stock markets, long-dated government bonds and commodities go
through cycles that can last for a while since it takes a long time for
the crowd, which participated in a market bubble, to realize that it is
not returning after a few years.

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